Will the monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly reach or exceed 1.50°C in 2025, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?

Started Feb 28, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
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Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (World Meteorological Society). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in January 2026 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the highest reported anomaly was 1.44°C in September 2023.

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NOTE 5 July 2025: NOAA appears to have reordered its site. The new link for the data is here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series. Download options are under the chart.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 6%
No 94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 45
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 206
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.118686
2.
-0.11709
3.
-0.112085
4.
-0.111874
5.
-0.09731

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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