Will the monthly global land and sea temperature anomaly reach or exceed 1.50°C in 2025, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Recorded global surface temperatures have risen steadily over the past decades (World Meteorological Society). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data published by NOAA, expected in January 2026 (NOAA, click "Download" for all data with the site's default settings [Monthly, Global, Land and Ocean, and CSV]). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the highest reported anomaly was 1.44°C in September 2023.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 5 July 2025: NOAA appears to have reordered its site. The new link for the data is here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series. Download options are under the chart.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | |
| No | 94% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 45 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 206 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |