What will be NVIDIA's total revenue in the first quarter of its fiscal year 2026 (approximately February through April 2025)?

Started Mar 07, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 28, 2025 08:20PM UTC
Challenges
Tags

NVIDIA has become a titan in the semiconductor industry as the race for artificial intelligence continues, though Chinese sanction concerns are weighing on the stock (Yahoo, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using the "NVIDIA Quarterly Revenue Trend" report for the first quarter of its fiscal year 2026, expected in the second half of May 2025 (NVIDIA - Quarterly Results). For the fourth quarter of its fiscal year 2025, NVIDIA's total revenue was $39,331 million dollars, or $39.331 billion (NVIDIA Quarterly Revenue Trend - FYQ4 2025).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least $44 billion, but less than $46 billion" with a closing date of 28 May 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $40 billion 3%
At least $40 billion, but less than $42 billion 10%
At least $42 billion, but less than $44 billion 27%
At least $44 billion, but less than $46 billion 50%
$46 billion or more 10%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 31
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.275508
2.
-0.224179
3.
-0.128506
4.
-0.093334
5.
-0.088749

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username