Reform UK, a political party led by pro-Brexit politician Nigel Farage, is challenging the political establishment in the UK with high support (Economist, Yahoo [Reuters], Yahoo [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 4 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Politico's Poll of Polls (Politico, set date range to "6 MONTHS" and click "KALMAN" above the right side of the chart under the "United Kingdom — 2024 election results" graphics). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data through and including 5 September 2025 are first reported. The percentage numbers displayed will control, irrespective of the line sequence on the chart. Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial. If the Reform UK Party merges with another party, the polling for the merged party will count. In the event of a tie, the party that most recently had a lower level of support will be considered to be ranked higher.

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The question closed "First" with a closing date of 5 September 2025.

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