Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 February 2026?

Started Apr 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
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With the safe return of the first Starliner crew in a SpaceX Dragon capsule, NASA is looking ahead to Starliner's next flight (AP, ABC News). Whether the Starliner is crewed is immaterial. The question will close early upon Boeing and/or NASA officially announcing that either the next flight will not take place before February 2026 or the spacecraft is planned to dock at the ISS on a date after 31 January 2026.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 February 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 8%
No 92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 98
Average for questions older than 6 months: 459
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.008344
2.
-0.007803
3.
-0.007604
4.
-0.006757
5.
-0.004381

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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