Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017?

Started Feb 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 31, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (International Business Times, The Hindu). Examples of ground offensives include India's Operation Vijay in the 1999 Kargil War (GlobalSecurity.org) and Turkey's Euphrates Shield in Syria (The Independent). Examples of military incidents that would not meet the threshold of a ground offensive include the September 2016 attacks (The Guardian, CNN), the October 2014 border clashes (BBC), and the 2001 attack on the Indian Kashmiri Assembly (BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
If you liked this question, try forecasting on whether both India and Pakistan will attend a SAARC summit before 1 January 2018 or whether there will be a new episode of mass killing in India before 2017.
This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 May 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 598
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000196
2.
-0.000196
3.
-0.000178
4.
-0.000178
5.
-0.000178

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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