Will the level of net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity in the Atlantic basin in 2025 reach or exceed 165%, according to Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science?

Started Apr 08, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 20, 2025 07:00PM UTC
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NTC activity is a measure of tropical cyclone activity in an area, specifically the average seasonal percentage mean of the number of tropical storms, the number of hurricanes, the number of major hurricanes, named storm days, hurricane days, and major hurricane days, with the 1950-2000 average value being 100% (SCOR Global, see Info Box 1, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory). Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted that the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2025 to 30 November 2025, "will have above-normal activity," with NTC activity forecasted at 165% (CBS News, CSU - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using summary data provided by CSU (CSU - Hurricane Seasonal Forecast Archive [2020s]). For 2024, CSU reported on 26 November 2024 that NTC activity was 189% (CSU - 2024 Hurricane Season Summary). The timing of the release of the summary has been dependent historically on the level of activity late in the hurricane season (CSU - Archive).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 20 November 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 14%
No 86%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 65
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.417398
2.
-0.378572
3.
-0.375082
4.
-0.325707
5.
-0.275634

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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