While cases of measles in Canada have remained relatively low in recent years, an outbreak in Ontario has raised alarms with public health officials (Public Health Agency of Canada, CBC, Yahoo [Reuters]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the Government of Canada's Health Infobase when first available for all of 2025 (Health Infobase - Measles Rubella, under Figure 3, click on "Figure 3: Text description" and see the "Number of confirmed cases" column). As of the launch of this question, the Government of Canada reported a total of 147 confirmed cases of measles in 2024, and 513 confirmed cases of measles in 2025 as of 22 March 2025. In the event of a discrepancy in the number of confirmed cases of measles reported on different parts of the webpage, the data under "Figure 3: Text description" will be used for resolution.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "5,000 or more" with a closing date of 28 December 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.