Will the College of Cardinals elect someone from Europe to be the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?
Closed May 08, 2025 04:10PM UTC
The Vatican announced on 21 April 2025 that Pope Francis had died, which will leave the College of Cardinals responsible for electing a new pope (Vatican News, AP, NPR). If the College has not elected a new pope before 1 July 2025, the closing date will be extended. For the purposes of this question, someone will be considered "European" if he is born in Europe or is a citizen of a European nation, and a country will be considered European if it is Kosovo or a member state of the Council of Europe (Council of Europe - Member States).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 May 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 64% | |
| No | 36% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 44 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 89 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |