Will the College of Cardinals elect someone from Europe to be the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?

Started Apr 21, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closed May 08, 2025 04:10PM UTC

The Vatican announced on 21 April 2025 that Pope Francis had died, which will leave the College of Cardinals responsible for electing a new pope (Vatican News, AP, NPR). If the College has not elected a new pope before 1 July 2025, the closing date will be extended. For the purposes of this question, someone will be considered "European" if he is born in Europe or is a citizen of a European nation, and a country will be considered European if it is Kosovo or a member state of the Council of Europe (Council of Europe - Member States).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 May 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 64%
No 36%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 88
Number of Forecasts 89
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.698106
2.
-0.678306
3.
-0.660035
4.
-0.618306

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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