Will the College of Cardinals elect someone from Europe to be the next pope of the Roman Catholic Church?
Closed May 08, 2025 04:10PM UTC
The Vatican announced on 21 April 2025 that Pope Francis had died, which will leave the College of Cardinals responsible for electing a new pope (Vatican News, AP, NPR). If the College has not elected a new pope before 1 July 2025, the closing date will be extended. For the purposes of this question, someone will be considered "European" if he is born in Europe or is a citizen of a European nation, and a country will be considered European if it is Kosovo or a member state of the Council of Europe (Council of Europe - Member States).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 May 2025.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 64% | |
No | 36% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 44 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 88 | |
Number of Forecasts | 89 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 155 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |