Between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018, how many countries will submit written notification to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC?

Started Mar 16, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 16, 2018 05:00PM UTC

Burundi, South Africa, and Gambia submitted official notification to the UN of their intent to withdraw from the International Criminal Court in 2016, but South Africa and Gambia later withdrew their notification (Foreign Policy, International Criminal Court, NY Times). According to the Rome statute, a state must submit written notification to the Secretary-General of the United Nations of its intent to withdraw; the withdrawal takes effect one year after submission (see Article 127.1 on page 56 of the Rome Statute here). All notifications regarding the Rome Statute can be found here by selecting "Treaty Reference: XVIII-10". Any country that submits a notification between 14 March 2017 and 14 March 2018 will count, regardless of whether it later withdraws that notification. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
No countries submitted written notification between 16 March 2017 and 16 March 2018 to the United Nations of their intent to withdraw from the ICC . This question closed as "0" with an end date of 16 March 2018.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 99%
1 1%
2 0%
3-5 0%
More than 5 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 208
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 669
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.367
3.
-0.357
4.
-0.356
5.
-0.298

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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