Will China officially declare an air-defense identification zone (ADIZ) over any part of the South China Sea before 1 August 2017?

Started Mar 16, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

After the International Court of Arbitration ruled against China's territorial claims in a landmark case in June 2016, China stated that it has a right to set up an ADIZ in the South China Sea (CNN, US Naval Institute). An extension of the existing East China Sea ADIZ to cover part of the South China Sea would count. For more information on air defence identification zones and the conflict in the South China Sea, see VOA, National Interest, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
China did not declare an ADIZ over any part of the South China Sea. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 1 Aug 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 165
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 665
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.007212
2.
-0.007212
3.
-0.006818
4.
-0.006399
5.
-0.006375

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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