Between 21 June 2025 and 31 December 2025, how many birds in the US in commercial and backyard flocks will have been affected by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI, or "bird flu"), according to the USDA?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
HPAI continues to circulate in the US, which, as of the launch of this question, has already led to the deaths of more than 174 million commercial and "backyard" birds across the country since 2022 (Fox10 Phoenix, American Egg Board, ContagionLive). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). To download the data, scroll down to the table under the map graphic (note that the webpage has a main scroll bar, then a second scroll bar to the left of the main one as soon as the map and table are visible). Click "Birds Affected" in the table titled "List of Detections by Day." Then click the "Choose a format to download" button to the left of "Share" and "Full Screen" in the ribbon below that table, and select "Data." In the additional window that pops up, click "Download" in the upper right to download the data (CSV file). Figures with "Confirmed" dates between and including 21 June 2025 and 31 December 2025 will count. Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 16 January 2026. As of the launch of this question, the total number of birds affected between 21 June 2024 and 31 December 2024 was 33,210,995.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
---|---|---|---|
Fewer than 6 million | 1.00% | 0% | 0% |
At least 6 million, but fewer than 9 million | 1.00% | 0% | 0% |
At least 9 million, but fewer than 12 million | 1.14% | +0.14% | +0.14% |
At least 12 million, but fewer than 15 million | 1.86% | -0.14% | -0.14% |
At least 15 million, but fewer than 18 million | 3.29% | +0.29% | -0.71% |
At least 18 million, but fewer than 21 million | 8.71% | -0.29% | -1.29% |
At least 21 million, but fewer than 25 million | 28.57% | +0.57% | +12.57% |
At least 25 million, but fewer than 30 million | 16.43% | -0.57% | -2.57% |
At least 30 million, but fewer than 36 million | 13.57% | -0.43% | -2.43% |
At least 36 million, but fewer than 43 million | 7.14% | +0.14% | -1.86% |
At least 43 million, but fewer than 51 million | 8.00% | 0% | -2.00% |
At least 51 million, but fewer than 60 million | 4.29% | +0.29% | -0.71% |
At least 60 million, but fewer than 70 million | 3.86% | -0.14% | -1.14% |
70 million or more | 1.14% | +0.14% | +0.14% |