Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship rocket before 1 January 2026?
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
SpaceX is expected to eventually attempt to "catch" the Starship vessel itself, but failures in the first half of 2025 have marred the company's push to make flights more routine (Space.com, WCCF Tech). A catch will be considered successful upon the ship being "caught" as intended after a space flight reaching an altitude of at least 100 km (Britannica - Karman Line, X - Elon Musk). A capture of the booster will not count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 120 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |