Will SpaceX successfully catch a Starship rocket before 1 January 2026?

Started Jun 27, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
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SpaceX is expected to eventually attempt to "catch" the Starship vessel itself, but failures in the first half of 2025 have marred the company's push to make flights more routine (Space.com, WCCF Tech). A catch will be considered successful upon the ship being "caught" as intended after a space flight reaching an altitude of at least 100 km (Britannica - Karman Line, X - Elon Musk). A capture of the booster will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 120
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.022398
2.
-0.020495
3.
-0.017676
4.
-0.017557
5.
-0.016867

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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