Will Rocket Lab successfully launch its Neutron rocket before 1 January 2026?
Closed Nov 10, 2025 09:05PM UTC
Rocket Lab has announced that it intends for its Neutron rocket's first launch to take place in the second half of 2025 (Rocket Lab - Upcoming Missions, Space.com, Rocket Lab - Neutron Launch). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Rocket Lab - Neutron Payload User's Guide). The question will close early upon Rocket Lab officially announcing that the launch will not take place in 2025.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 10 November 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 15% | |
| No | 85% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 24 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 75 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
