Foxes ask:

Will Dan Bongino cease to hold either the director or the deputy director position at the Federal Bureau of Investigation before 20 January 2026?

Started Jul 15, 2025 06:30PM UTC
Closed Jan 04, 2026 05:00AM UTC

Bongino's involvement with the Trump administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case files has come under scrutiny (FBI.gov - Dan Bongino, CNN, USA Today). Holding either the director or the deputy director position in an acting capacity will count as holding the position.

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 3 January 2026.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 63%
No 37%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 154
Number of Forecasts 97
Average for questions older than 6 months: 458
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.726214
2.
-0.721767
3.
-0.715342
4.
-0.597494
5.
-0.515106

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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