Will Shigeru Ishiba either announce his intention to resign as prime minister or cease to be the prime minister of Japan before 25 October 2025?
Closed Sep 07, 2025 09:00AM UTC
Despite his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) losing seats in elections for Japan's upper house in July 2025, Ishiba announced that he would not resign as prime minister (AP, BBC). A public announcement that he will resign upon the selection of a replacement as prime minister and/or the leader of (LDP) will count, but an announcement merely stating that he will resign at some point in the future without either giving a specific date or tying his resignation to a specific future event will not count.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 September 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 27% | |
| No | 73% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 20 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 137 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 55 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 369 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
