Will the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) either remove its travel health notice for China with regard to chikungunya or reduce it below Level 2 before 1 January 2026?
Started
Aug 04, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
On 1 August 2025, the CDC issued a travel health notice for China due to an outbreak of chikungunya in Guangdong Province (CDC, Newsweek). A notice must be removed or reduced for all parts of China to count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | |
| No | 86% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 154 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 105 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 458 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
