The University Forecasting Challenge asks:
What will the US president's net approval rating be as of 3 December 2025, according to Nate Silver's aggregation?
Closed Dec 03, 2025 08:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 2 December 2025 and the outcome determined using "Approval/Disapproval" chart data provided by Nate Silver (Nate Silver, click "Net approval" under "Do Americans approve or disapprove of Donald Trump?"). The data for 3 December 2025 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 5 December 2025. As of the launch of this question, the US president's net approval rating on 11 August 2025 was -8.2%. There is a download option under the chart, but the figure as displayed on the chart will be used for resolution.
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The question closed "At least -14.0%, but less than -12.0%" with a closing date of 4 December 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than -14.0% | 48% | |
| At least -14.0%, but less than -12.0% | 50% | |
| At least -12.0%, but less than -10.0% | 2% | |
| At least -10.0%, but less than -8.0% | 0% | |
| At least -8.0%, but less than -6.0% | 0% | |
| At least -6.0%, but less than -4.0% | 0% | |
| At least -4.0%, but less than -2.0% | 0% | |
| At least -2.0%, but less than 0.0% | 0% | |
| At least 0.0%, but less than 2.0% | 0% | |
| At least 2.0%, but less than 4.0% | 0% | |
| 4.0% or higher | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 106 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 136 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 630 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 368 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
