Which tennis player will win the Men's Singles Final at the 2026 Australian Open?

Started Sep 12, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

The 2026 Australian Open is scheduled for 12 January to 1 February 2026, with the Men's Singles Final scheduled for 1 February 2026 (Australian Open).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Carlos Alcaraz" with a closing date of 1 February 2026.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Carlos Alcaraz 60%
Novak Djokovic 21%
Jack Draper 0%
Taylor Fritz 0%
Daniil Medvedev 0%
Ben Shelton 0%
Jannik Sinner 15%
Alexander Zverev 1%
Someone else 3%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 39
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 133
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 357
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.361722
2.
-0.27069
3.
-0.227915
5.
-0.167493

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username