Will a winner of the 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences have a faculty appointment at Harvard University or the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when the prize is announced?

Started Sep 16, 2025 08:00AM UTC
Closed Oct 13, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Both Harvard and MIT have a long history of producing Nobel Laureates among both faculty and graduates (iSchoolConnect). The announcement of the winner or winners of the 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences is scheduled for 13 October 2025 (Nobel Prize - Announcement Dates). A winner with a faculty emeritus title or affiliate faculty title at either institution when the prize is announced will count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 49%
No 51%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 125
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 112
Number of Forecasts 235
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 260
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.354722
2.
-0.328185
3.
-0.29183
4.
-0.288133
5.
-0.273067

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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