Before 1 January 2018, will the United Kingdom and the European Union reach an agreement on payment of the UK's outstanding liabilities to the EU?

Started Apr 07, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 08, 2017 06:00PM UTC
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Finance  

Media reports indicate the EU intends to demand the UK to pay a “hefty” bill to cover various commitments the UK made as a member of the EU (The Telegraph, The Independent, The Guardian) . The question will close when an agreement is reached (e.g., an agreement on a formula to calculate outstanding liabilities (Reuters), the disbursement of payment is not required for a "yes" resolution. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
An agreement on payment of liabilities has been reached (European Council, European Council). This question closed as "Yes" with an end date of 8 December. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 07/11/17 03:50pm
Agreements that only cover part of the UK's outstanding liabilities will not be sufficient to resolve the question.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.00%
No 93.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 428
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1807
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.544
2.
-1.503
3.
-1.498
4.
-1.402
5.
-1.391

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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