Before 1 April 2018, will India announce that it has begun, or will begin, new construction that dams any part of the of the Indus, Jhelum, or Chenab rivers, or their upper tributaries?

Started Apr 11, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC

Building dams across the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers -- whose headwaters are controlled by India but whose downstream flow is allocated to Pakistan by the Indus Water Treaty -- could increase tensions between the two countries over water (Foreign Policy, Hindustan Times, New Delhi Times). UPDATE: GJ is looking into the specifications of the Ganderbal Project (Hydroworld, HCC) to confirm if all requirements of the forecasting question have or have not been met. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
India announced that it will begin new construction that dams part of the of the Chenab rivers. this question closed as “yes” with an end date of 1 October 2017 (NDTV). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 94.00%
No 6.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 156
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 713
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017
2.
-0.017
5.
-0.014

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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