Before 7 April 2026, will Andry Rajoelina either flee Madagascar or cease to be its president?
Started
Oct 06, 2025 03:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 12, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Challenges
Violent protests over living conditions broke out in Madagascar in late September 2025, with protesters, unmoved by President Rajoelina firing of the government, calling for his resignation (BBC, France 24, Central News [South Africa]). Whether or not Rajoelina has fled Madagascar will be determined using credible, open-source media reporting.
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 12 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 62% | |
| No | 38% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 20 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 113 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 41 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 261 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
