Will Keir Starmer cease to be the prime minister of the United Kingdom before 17 January 2026?
Started
Oct 10, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 17, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 17, 2026 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
With Starmer's approval rating the lowest on record for a prime minister, there is speculation that the Labour Party could seek a leadership change (NBC News, ABC [Australia], ABC News).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 January 2026.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | |
| No | 98% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 73 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 203 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
