Before 25 December 2025, will Brazil's Senate approve a nominee to the Supreme Federal Court (SFT) to replace Justice Luís Roberto Barroso?
Closed Dec 25, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Justice Barroso announced on 9 October 2025 that he would retire early from the SFT, setting up an opportunity for President Lula to appoint a new justice (Official Gazette of the Union - 15 October 2025, Valor International). Jorge Messias is considered an early favorite, but there is political pressure on Lula to appoint a woman to the position (Brasil de Fato). SFT justices are appointed by the president with the "approval of an absolute majority of the Federal Senate" (Constitution of Brazil, see Article 101).
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 25 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, Bruno Dantas | 4% | |
| Yes, Jorge Messias | 5% | |
| Yes, Rodrigo Pacheco | 12% | |
| Yes, a woman | 2% | |
| Yes, different man | 2% | |
| No | 75% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 11 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 134 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 42 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 361 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| There are not enough forecasters in this question to generate an accuracy profile. |
