Before 25 December 2025, will Brazil's Senate approve a nominee to the Supreme Federal Court (SFT) to replace Justice Luís Roberto Barroso?
Started
Oct 22, 2025 04:30PM UTC
Closing Dec 25, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Dec 25, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Justice Barroso announced on 9 October 2025 that he would retire early from the SFT, setting up an opportunity for President Lula to appoint a new justice (Official Gazette of the Union - 15 October 2025, Valor International). Jorge Messias is considered an early favorite, but there is political pressure on Lula to appoint a woman to the position (Brasil de Fato). SFT justices are appointed by the president with the "approval of an absolute majority of the Federal Senate" (Constitution of Brazil, see Article 101).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, Bruno Dantas | 4.33% | +0.33% | -0.67% | -4.55% |
| Yes, Jorge Messias | 10.33% | -2.67% | -0.67% | -3.17% |
| Yes, Rodrigo Pacheco | 13.33% | +0.33% | -1.67% | +4.33% |
| Yes, a woman | 2.67% | -1.33% | -1.33% | -2.21% |
| Yes, different man | 5.56% | +0.56% | +0.56% | -0.94% |
| No | 63.78% | +2.78% | +3.78% | +6.53% |