The Economist asks

What will be the U.S. real quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017?

Started Apr 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2017 05:00PM UTC

President Trump's economic plans aim to return the U.S. to 4 percent annual economic growth (The White House, The Economist, Business Insider). This question will be resolved based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's "advance" estimate of the United States' real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The advance estimate, which measures quarter-on-quarter growth using seasonally adjusted annual rates, for Q4 2016 can be found here (Bureau of Economic Analysis). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and closed when Q2 data are released, typically in late July. According to the data released by the BEA , "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017." This question closed with an answer of "c) More than 2% but less than 3%". See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1% 0%
Between 1% and 2%, inclusive 22%
More than 2% but less than 3% 73%
3% or more 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 226
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 730
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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