Between the week starting 9 November 2025 and week starting 29 March 2026, will the CDC report 40 or more cases of measles in a single week?
Closed Dec 07, 2025 03:00PM UTC
While the numbers of cases of measles in the US have declined from significant levels in the first half of 2025, concerns remain as Canada lost its own "elimination" status (Public Health Agency of Canada, Harvard Health, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 March 2026 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (CDC, see "Data Table" for "Weekly measles cases by rash onset date"). Only revisions reported one week after a week's initial report will count for resolution (e.g., revisions for the "Weekly cases" for the week with the start date of 19 October 2025 made the week of 26 October 2025 will count, but revisions made after that are immaterial).
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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 December 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 77% | |
| No | 23% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 30 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 110 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 42 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 255 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |