How many seats in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in January's elections?
Started
Sep 28, 2015 08:13PM UTC
Closed Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 16, 2016 08:00PM UTC
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The Democratic Progressive Party could potentially win control of the both the presidency and the Legislative Yuan after January's general elections. This has broad implications for Taiwan's relationship with China and the United States' foreign policies in Asia (The World in 2016, Brookings, Global Risk Insights). The election is scheduled for 16 January 2016.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Plurality | 31% | |
| Majority | 68% | |
| Not a plurality | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 209 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 607 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
