Will a loya jirga convene in Afghanistan before 2018?

Started May 16, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

The September 2014 agreement that produced Afghanistan's current national unity government called for the convocation of a loya jirga (RFERL), but the loya jirga has not yet convenved and the stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (Bloomberg, Tolo News, Council on Foreign Relations). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
A loya jirga did not convene in Afghanistan. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 698
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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