Before 2018, will there be a lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman?

Started May 23, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

For the purposes of this question, a lethal attack is one that results in one US fatality. In recent months, the US Navy has had hostile encounters with Iranian naval forces (Newsweek, CNN, The Guardian), and has been attacked by Houthi rebels firing missiles from Yemen (San Diego Union Tribune). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
There was no lethal attack on a US military vessel in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Oman. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 227
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 869
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username