Started Jun 06, 2017 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Economist asks

When will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela?

Maduro faces a political crisis in Venezuela (Reuters, Washington Post). In the event that Maduro reportedly disappears or flees the capital, a three-week waiting period will be observed, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Maduro returns in the interim, the question will remain open.

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Name Probability
Before 1 October 2017 0%
Between 1 October 2017 and 31 December 2017, inclusive, 0%
Between 1 January 2018 and 31 March 2018, inclusive, 0%
Between 1 April 2018 and 30 June 2018 5%
Not before 1 July 2018 95%

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