Roche asks:

Before 30 May 2026, which of the top four pharmaceutical companies by 2024 research and development budgets will first announce the acquisition of an AI-centered drug development startup with a value of $250 million or more?

Started Feb 11, 2026 02:30PM UTC
Closing May 30, 2026 07:01AM UTC

Pharmaceutical companies invest tens of billions of dollars annually into research and development (Fierce Biotech, Drug Discovery & Development). A firm will be considered an "AI-centered drug development startup" if it A) characterizes itself as a firm that primarily uses AI technologies in order to identify novel drug candidates, and B) was founded in the year 2019 or later. Whether the announced acquisition is completed is irrelevant, and the announcement of a joint venture will not count. In the event that two or more companies simultaneously (i.e., exact same date and time) announce a qualifying acquisition, the more highly ranked company in terms of 2024 research budget will be considered to have announced first. For the purposes of this question, a drug (including biologics) will be considered novel if it has never been approved for trial by a national (e.g., FDA) or supranational (e.g., EU's EMA) regulatory body in the past.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
AstraZeneca 8.00% -12.00%
Johnson & Johnson 0% -20.00%
Merck 1.00% -19.00%
Roche 3.50% -16.50%
None of the above 87.50% +67.50%

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