The four pertinent companies are: Absci, Insilico Medicine, Isomorphic Labs, and Recursion (Absci, Insilico Medicine, Isomorphic Labs, Recursion). For the purposes of this question, the initial regulatory filing in the US or China would be an Investigational New Drug (IND) application (which are generally confidential as far as the regulator is concerned, but companies often report such applications to the public once made) (FDA - IND Application, Citeline). The filing in Australia would be either a Clinical Trial Notification (CTN) application or a Clinical Trial Approval (CTA) application (Precision for Medicine). The filing in Hong Kong would be an Application for Certificate for Clinical Trial/Medicinal Test (Pharmacy and Poisons Board of Hong Kong). A filing for a drug for which such a filing had been previously announced and/or submitted will not count. A filing made with a partner firm will count. For the purposes of this question, a drug (including biologics) will be considered novel if it has never been approved for trial by a national (e.g., FDA) or supranational (e.g., EU's EMA) regulatory body in the past.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.