The Early Warning Project asks

Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?

Started Jun 30, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (Early Warning Project). This question is part of a series of quarterly questions (Good Judgment Inc). It will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and will be resolved in July 2018 after EWP assesses the situation in Iraq from July 2017 through June 2018. Armed groups include but are not limited to state security forces, rebel armies, and other militias. Campaigns that systematically kill civilians include, but are not limited to, policies which intentionally kill civilians en masse (e.g., military strategies that intentionally target civilians, mass execution of a specific group) and policies that knowingly result in widespread death (e.g., mass starvation, confiscation of health care supplies, forced relocation). In general, unrelated executions of individuals or the accidental killing of civilians in war will not be considered a campaign to systematically kill civilians. If an armed group is engaged in multiple campaigns that systematically kill civilians (e.g., in different geographic areas, or targeted against separate civilian groups) those fatalities will be counted separately and the question will only resolve as yes if 1,000 civilian fatalities occur in one or more campaigns. See Early Warning Project for examples. See GJ’s FAQ on forecasting questions like this. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as 'No', with resolutions further detailed in this GJ Open blog post written by EWP. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9.50%
No 90.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 68
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 252
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username