The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?

Started Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Tesla’s new Model 3, its most affordable car model, is targeted at the mass market (Tesla, Fortune). With more than 400,000 Model 3 reservations on the books, Tesla aims to ramp up production quickly, with a stated goal of delivering 100,000-200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017 (Teslarati). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
"We have now delivered 28,386 Model 3 vehicles to date." This question closed as "less than 50,000" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 50,000 95%
More than 50,000 but less than 100,000 5%
Between 100,000 and 200,000 inclusive 0%
More than 200,000 but less than 300,000 0%
300,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 518
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 1312
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.37
3.
-0.365
4.
-0.336
5.
-0.313

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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