Started Jul 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The Mack Institute asks

Before 1 July 2018, how many Model 3 cars will Tesla deliver to customers?

Tesla’s new Model 3, its most affordable car model, is targeted at the mass market (Tesla, Fortune). With more than 400,000 Model 3 reservations on the books, Tesla aims to ramp up production quickly, with a stated goal of delivering 100,000-200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017 (Teslarati).

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Name Probability
Less than 50,000 44%
More than 50,000 but less than 100,000 50%
Between 100,000 and 200,000 inclusive 6%
More than 200,000 but less than 300,000 0%
300,000 or more 0%

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