Will ACLED record a riot/protest event in the Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017?

Started Aug 09, 2017 04:45PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges

This question closed as "a) Yes", with and end date of 31 August 2017. The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by "The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data Page (ACLED ). The question will resolve as "yes" if ACLED records any event for which: 'COUNTRY’ is: Ivory Coast; 'EVENT_DATE' falls in August 2017; and 'EVENT TYPE’ is: Riots/Protests. The question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved using data retrieved mid-September 2017.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 75.00%
No 25.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 160
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 321
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.492
2.
-0.447
4.
-0.422
5.
-0.422

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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