How many battle deaths will ACLED record in Sudan in August 2017?
Started
Aug 09, 2017 04:45PM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Closed Aug 31, 2017 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
This question closed as "b) Between 7 and 46, inclusive, with an end date of 31 August 2017.
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by "The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data Page (ACLED). The count of battle deaths for August 2017 are obtained by summing the 'FATALITIES’ column for events in which the 'COUNTRY’ is: Sudan; 'EVENT_TYPE’ is: Battle-Government regains territory, Battle-No change of territory, or Battle-Non-state actor overtakes territory; and 'EVENT_DATE' is in August 2017. The question will be suspended on 31 August 2017 and resolved using data retrieved mid-September 2017.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 7 | 2% | |
Between 7 and 46, inclusive | 25% | |
More than 46 but less than 122 | 50% | |
Between 122 and 321, inclusive | 21% | |
More than 321 | 2% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 146 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 292 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |