HFC asks

How many UN member states will sign the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons before 1 November 2017?

Started Aug 16, 2017 04:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 01, 2017 03:59AM UTC
Challenges

In July 2017, a UN conference negotiated the text for the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (The United Nations, The Washington Post). Starting on 20 September 2017 at the UN General Assembly, any UN member state can sign it (NY Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
53 member states signed the UN Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty before 1 November 2017. This question closed as "b) Between 50 and 100, inclusive," with an end date of 1 November 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 50 0%
Between 50 and 100, inclusive 100%
More than 100 but less than 122 0%
Between 122 and 140, inclusive 0%
More than 140 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 169
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 554
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.211693
3.
-0.209918
4.
-0.199453

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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