Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?

Started Aug 22, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

The last ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) broke down in 2015, and thousands have been killed since (Council on Foreign Relations). This question will be resolved using data from the International Crisis Group's "Casualties of the Conflict" table, for the months from August through November (inclusive) (Crisis Group). If the threshold has not been reached before, the question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and then resolved on 29 December 2017, to allow ICG to collect and code reports from late November. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict did not exceed 125, according to the International Crisis Group, in any month from August through November 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.00%
No 99.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 473
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.108716
2.
-0.097809
3.
-0.088898
4.
-0.082134
5.
-0.077714

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username