Will casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict exceed 125 in any month from August through November 2017, according to the International Crisis Group?
Started
Aug 22, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
The last ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) broke down in 2015, and thousands have been killed since (Council on Foreign Relations). This question will be resolved using data from the International Crisis Group's "Casualties of the Conflict" table, for the months from August through November (inclusive) (Crisis Group). If the threshold has not been reached before, the question will be suspended on 30 November 2017 and then resolved on 29 December 2017, to allow ICG to collect and code reports from late November.
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Casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict did not exceed 125, according to the International Crisis Group, in any month from August through November 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Casualties from the Turkey-PKK conflict did not exceed 125, according to the International Crisis Group, in any month from August through November 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 December 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1.00% | |
No | 99.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 121 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205 | |
Number of Forecasts | 473 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |