How many high school students will play eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season?

Started Sep 01, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

A recently published study on chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) found traces of the degenerative brain disease not only in former NFL players, but in college and high school football players as well (The Journal of the American Medical Association, NY Times, ESPN). Eleven-player football enrollment declined by approximately 23K players from the 2015-16 season to the 2016-17 season. Outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) for the 2017-18 season. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive" with an end date of 24 August 2018. According to the NFHS 1,038,179 students participated in eleven-player football in the 2017/18 season. (NFHS) See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 1,030,000 8%
Between 1,030,000 and 1,040,000, inclusive 31%
More than 1,040,000 but less than 1,050,000 46%
Between 1,050,000 and 1,060,000, inclusive 15%
More than 1,060,000 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 246
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 485
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.199092
2.
-0.179144
3.
-0.17717
4.
-0.169537
5.
-0.164978

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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