Between September 2017 and February 2018, how many people will be killed by sectarian actors in Nigeria?

Started Sep 12, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 28, 2018 07:59AM UTC

Nigeria is facing increasing sectarian violence, even outside of violence attributed to Boko Haram (All Africa, Daily Post, Premium Times, IRIN). Outcome will be determined by the deaths attributed to "Sectarian Actor" on "Graph 2: Deaths by Perpetrator" on the Council on Foreign Relations Nigeria Security Tracker. The total for September through and February can be found by setting the start period at August 2017 and the end period at February 2018. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. Between September 2017 and February 2018, 618 deaths were attributed to sectarian actors. This question was closed as "b) 500-750, inclusive" with an end date of 28 February 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 02/12/18 02:24pm
GJ has corrected "Sectarian Actors" --> "Sectarian Actor" to match the title in the graph cited under "More Info."
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 500 11%
500-750, inclusive 87%
More than 750 but less than 1,000 2%
1,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 209
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 660
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.315
3.
-0.315
4.
-0.305
5.
-0.305

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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