Will Juan Hernandez win Honduras' upcoming presidential election?
Started
Oct 17, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 27, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Closed Nov 27, 2017 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
Honduras has presidential elections scheduled for 26 November 2017 (The Star, The Economist).
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With nearly 43% of the popular vote, Juan Hernandez has been declared the winner in Honduras' presidential election (TSE Honduras, NPR). This question closed as "Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
With nearly 43% of the popular vote, Juan Hernandez has been declared the winner in Honduras' presidential election (TSE Honduras, NPR). This question closed as "Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, with more than 45% of the popular vote | 46% | |
| Yes, with between 38% and 45% of the popular vote, inclusive | 51% | |
| Yes, with more than 27% but less than 38% of the vote | 3% | |
| Yes, with 27% or less of the popular vote | 0% | |
| No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 48 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 115 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
