Before 1 July 2018, will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan?

Started Nov 21, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

The stability of Afghanistan's government remains tenuous (LA Times, Council on Foreign Relations, The Diplomat). In the event that Ghani reportedly disappears or flees the capital, GJI will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Ghani returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Ashraf Ghani remains the president of Afghanistan. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 298
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 863
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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