Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2017?

Started Nov 10, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 06, 2016 01:30AM UTC

Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706 .
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 52.00%
No 48.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 363
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 748
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.473
2.
-0.472
3.
-0.464
4.
-0.447
5.
-0.439

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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