HFC asks

Will the WHO confirm more than 10 cases of Marburg in 2017?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 04:59AM UTC
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Health  

There have been confirmed cases of Marburg, a deadly virus similar to Ebola, for the first time since 2014 (World Health Organization, Time Magazine, CNN). Question will be resolved based on the latest WHO data available on 31 December 2017 (WHO). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
There were not more than 10 cases of Marburg confirmed in 2017. This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.50%
No 96.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 143
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 221
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.001
5.
-0.001

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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