HFC asks

How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Iran (Islamic Republic of) between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 18, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Challenges
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Health  

FluNet is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' here. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

Total number of influenza positive viruses: 28
http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 7 0%
Between 7 and 18, inclusive 0%
More than 18 but less than 41 100%
Between 41 and 108, inclusive 0%
More than 108 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 30
Average for questions older than 6 months: 156
Number of Forecasts 75
Average for questions older than 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.061113
2.
-0.037141
3.
-0.035078
4.
-0.024863
5.
-0.014561

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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