HFC asks

How many influenza positive viruses will FluNet record for Costa Rica between 27 November 2017 and 3 December 2017 (epidemiological week 48)?

Started Nov 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 04, 2017 04:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Health  

FluNet is the World Health Organization's global web-based tool for influenza virological surveillance. Relevant data can be accessed via FluNet functions, 'Download influenza laboratory surveillance data from any week' here. Select by: 'Country, area or territory'; Filter by: the country of interest; set the time period to cover the epidemiological-week(s) of interest; and then click 'Display report.' This question will be resolved using the value or sum of values reported in 'Total number of influenza positive viruses' or 'ALL_INF' for all reporting weeks within the period of interest. Question will be suspended on the last day of the period of interest and resolved when data for the period of interest is released. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

Total number of influenza positive viruses: 7
http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=12

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 8 5%
Between 8 and 13, inclusive 27%
More than 13 but less than 18 23%
Between 18 and 28, inclusive 31%
More than 28 14%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 27
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.723092
2.
-0.468085
3.
-0.224866
4.
-0.194317
5.
-0.184732

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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