The Mack Institute asks

Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?

Started Dec 08, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California. According to the California Code of Regulations Section 227.44, companies shall report within 10 days any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
Resolution Notes

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/autonomousveh_ol316

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 10 2%
Between 10 and 19, inclusive 39%
Between 20 and 29, inclusive 57%
Between 30 and 39, inclusive 2%
40 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 496
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 1072
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.528914
2.
-0.528001
3.
-0.50196
4.
-0.478764
5.
-0.475223

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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