The Mack Institute asks
Between 1 January 2018 and 30 June 2018, how many reports of traffic accidents involving an autonomous vehicle will the California Department of Motor Vehicles receive?
Started
Dec 08, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
Outcome will be determined by California DMV data. Multiple companies have been approved to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California. According to the California Code of Regulations Section 227.44, companies shall report within 10 days any accident originating from the operation of an autonomous vehicle on a public road that resulted in property damage, bodily injury or death. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2018 and resolved on 20 July to allow reports covering late June to be included.
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Resolution Notes
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/vr/autonomous/autonomousveh_ol316
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Fewer than 10 | 2% | |
Between 10 and 19, inclusive | 39% | |
Between 20 and 29, inclusive | 57% | |
Between 30 and 39, inclusive | 2% | |
40 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 496 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
Number of Forecasts | 1072 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |