Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?

A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (The Iran Primer, Council on Foreign Relations, Middle East Institute).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

Name Probability
Yes 5%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In