Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?

Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (The Iran Primer, Council on Foreign Relations, Middle East Institute). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a confrontation between the US and Iran over the duration of this question. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 3525
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 5393
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.017855
2.
-0.017855
3.
-0.017855
4.
-0.017855
5.
-0.017837

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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