Fareed Zakaria GPS asks
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019?
Started
Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC
Challenges
A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Quds and Basij (The Iran Primer, Council on Foreign Relations, Middle East Institute).
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This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a confrontation between the US and Iran over the duration of this question. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
This question should close as "No" with an end date of 12/31/2018. There were no verifiable fatalities resulting from a confrontation between the US and Iran over the duration of this question. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes | 5.00% | |
No | 95.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 3525 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
Number of Forecasts | 5393 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 544 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |