Started Dec 15, 2017 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2019 07:59AM UTC

  Fareed Zakaria GPS asks

Will Bashar al-Assad cease to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019?

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad still holds power despite a civil war that has lasted years and caused much destruction (BBC, CNN). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


Bashar al Assad remained in power at the question's end date. This question closed as "No" on 12/31/2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.00%
No 95.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 4101
Average for questions older than 6 months: 256
Number of Forecasts 6035
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.02
3.
-0.02
4.
-0.02
5.
-0.02

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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